Ezra said something this morning that makes me seriously wonder if he's paying close enough attention to the 2008 campaign:
On the same day, Romney quietly won the Nevada caucuses, giving him 18 delegates, McCain and Giuliani seem, to me, to be running momentum campaigns, hoping that their profile and earned media will vault them to victory in large states.Why, oh why, does the Big Media One even mention the name of America's Mayor in this sentence? Does he see something in the tea leaves for Rudy's hopes and dreams in Florida? Because I don't. He will get stomped on just like he has in every contest he's entered since he said he wanted to be the Mayor of America that resides at 1600 Penn. Ron Paul has twice the delegates that Rudy has, and Paul doesn't even have name recognition outside the blogosphere.
But that is the past, you say? Look at the RCP average, you say? Rudy can win this one, you say? Or at least get close enough that he doesn't lose, you say?
I'm afraid that it still won't be enough to hope for a close loss for Giuliani. If he can't pull out anything better than a resounding 15-point surprise shocker in Florida, without voter fraud, then his campaign is dead before Terminal Tuesday even gets here. And if he even wins by a single vote, I go on record and proclaim that I will buy a full round at the next Blogger Bash in penance for my hasty words. (And if that doesn't get David to start working on the next one, then nothing will!)
Giuliani is in a car with four flat tires here. Please stop telling him to get out and push by encouraging his campaign and saying it depends on "momentum". He hasn't had a scrap of positive momentum since August of last year.
For that matter, please stop mentioning him entirely, for that is the only thing resembling momentum he has ever had in the first place.