05 November, 2006

We Interrupt This Blogging Break For An Important Announcement

And now, a mere 38 hours before polls close here in the rarefied air of Colorado, I feel it safe to toss out my own predictions in response to Andrew's rather safe prophesy on state races. For the amendments and referendums, I'll add the Rocky Mountain News' profile for each.

CO 1: Easy win for DeGette. Surprised she hasn't been seen on the campaign trail across the country, really.
CO 2: Slightly less easy win for Udall. You'd think that Boulder wouldn't dominate the district by that much, wouldn't you?
CO 3: Salazar by 15 points. What could have been close turns into a laugh-fest with the Dem landslide about to happen.
CO 4: Musgrave by 5. Angie Paccione ran a good race, but it didn't get enough attention from the big boys in the DCCC and blogosphere until a bit too late to stem the tide. Of all the nasty political ads in the market, though, this one has the biggest share of them.
CO 5: Lamborn by 13. This is, after all, Colorado Springs and Pueblo (Meh. My bad. Thanks for the correction, Andrew.) we're talking about. And the President's recent visit will cement the loss for Fawcett quite firmly.
CO 6: Laugh fest for Tancredo.
CO 7: Perlmutter by 7. Ed takes the Dem wave all the way to the big House, and by a bigger margin than the polls suggest.

State House: Margin of Dem control goes up by 5.
State Senate: Dems will not only gain seats, but will not lose a single one they already hold.

CO Gov: Ritter by 13. Bob Beauprez kept getting in the way of his own feet with this one.

Amend 38: No by 15. Anyone that reads the thing can see this will make things worse for petitioning onto the ballots, not better.
Amend 39: No by 6. It'll be a tough row to hoe for all the school districts not in the Front Range, and the rest of the state already knows it.
Amend 40: No by a landslide. Term-limiting judges is not the way to do things. Making commonsense legislation is.
Amend 41: Yes by over 30 points. Ethics is the key phrase in politics this year, and anything that makes ethical behavior more prominent will resonate.
Amend 42: No by a nose. Raising the minimum wage is a good thing for those of us on the bottom of the scale. Too bad the electorate won't see things this way.
Amend 43: No by 2. Legal definition of marriage... Well, let's just say that recent events haven't really helped the cause too much.
Amend 44: No by a landslide. Marijuana legalization in the entire state won't fly. And the authors were probably using the substance recreationally when they wrote this thing.

Ref E: Yes by 6. The right sees it as a tax cut. The left sees it as helping the disadvantaged. And the two are arguing against each other enough to confuse the issue. But not quite enough.
Ref F: Yes in a laugher. Ever try to initiate a recall? I bet the ones behind this one have tried it.
Ref G: Yes by a squeak. There goes the constitutional provision for a free and independent militia. Damn.
Ref H: Yes by 12. Illegal immigration is still a hot-button issue this year, and punishing employers for not paying attention will fly quite well in this weather.
Ref I: Yes by 5. Domestic partnerships are in vogue. Why get married when you can just live together?
Ref J: Recount. I think my Magic 8-Ball is stuck on "Outcome Murky. Try Again."
Ref K: No by 10. Well okay, so illegal immigration isn't THAT much of a hot-button issue this year.

For my national predictions, see the post here on Creative Destruction.


Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

I hope you are right on Amendment 39, although I'm not at all hopeful that you are.

Andrew Oh-Willeke said...

Also, Pueblo is in CD 3, not CD 5.